With the Iowa caucuses approaching on January 3rd, NextGen Journal is spotlighting the young voices of the first-in-the-nation caucus state: including native Iowans and students at the University of Iowa, Iowa State, Drake University, Simpson College, Iowa high schools, and more.
As we head into a critical election, where does our generation stand? Which way are young voters likely to swing, and how does it compare to 2008? What issues do we care most about, and how likely are we to even turn out? In examining the latest polling, stats, and first-hand perspectives of students, we’ve found a great deal of diversity in engagement and opinion. However, we’ve also seen some important common themes, which we hope to communicate here- first on a national level, and then in Iowa itself. From there, we hope to highlight the genuine perspectives of students- the ‘Young Voices’ of Iowa.
On a National Level- Young Voters Are:
…… Less Politically Engaged
Overall, young voters across the country are less politically engaged than four years ago. A recent study from the Pew Research Center on The Generation Gap and the 2012 Election found that only 13% of millennials (aged 18-29) report having given ‘a lot of thought to the candidates’- down from 28% at a similar point four years ago. The percent following election news ‘very closely’ is down substantially as well. As shown in the chart on the left, those trends do not hold for other generations.
Similar, the Pew poll found that 69% of millennials say they ‘personally care a good deal’ who wins the 2012 Presidential election- that’s down from 81% of young voters in fall 2007. Young voters are also less likely (63% now, versus 73% in advance of the 2008 elections) to agree with the statement, “Voting gives people like me some say about how the government runs things.”
As if that’s not convincing enough, a Survey of Young American’s Attitudes Towards Politics and Public Service released in mid-December by the Harvard Institute of Politics found that only 50% of 18-24 year olds say they will ‘definitely’ be voting in the 2012 Presidential election. In fall 2007, 61% of the same age group responded that they would definitely be voting.
Young Voters Are…. Concerned, but Optimistic
The Harvard IOP December survey also found that the majority of young voters are concerned about our country’s path. Only 12% of young voters nationally believe that America is headed in the right direction. Over four times that many, 52%, say that our nation is on the wrong track, while the rest are unsure or did not answer. On college campuses, we observe this on a daily basis- there is an overriding sense that our greatest problems are not being addressed, and that Washington seems incapable of cleaning up its act.
That concern, though, does not necessarily lead to a pessimistic outlook. Indeed, young voters are more prone to optimism than any other age group. In the Pew study, 55% of millennials (18-29) say that the U.S.’s best days lie ahead of us, while only 37% say they are behind us.
Young Voters Are…. Economy-Focused
The Pew study also showed that the most relevant issues to millennials and young voters are overwhelmingly related to jobs and the economy. Indeed, jobs come in first on almost every list, which is understandable when youth unemployment in the U.S. stands at 18.1%- higher than the rate in Syria. College students wary of entering a rough labor market regularly dwell on the ‘jobs issue,’ and most young voters support measures to deal with it. In a separate area of the Pew study, 55% of millennials indicated that ‘spending to help the economy recover’ should be a higher priority than ‘reducing the budget deficit.’ In other words, young voters are more supportive of stimulus than any other group.
The Harvard IOP survey also provided some more context- in the poll, 74% of young voters indicated that their top concern had something to do with the economy, and only 32% expressed approval of the President’s handling of it. The only issue with higher disapproval among young voters? The President’s handling of the budget deficit (30% approval)- both of which represent possible opportunities for Republican candidates over the next year.
Young Voters Are…. Disappointed in President Obama….
President Obama’s approval ratings among younger voters have also declined substantially since his inauguration, although they generally stay higher than among any other generation. The President’s approval among millennials stood at 73% in February 2009, according to the Pew Research Center- it has now fallen below 50%. In early October, the Pew Center indicated that President Obama’s approval stood at 49%; as of early December, Harvard’s IOP survey pegged the President’s youth approval rating at 46%. While it is likely that the President’s approval has climbed somewhat among young voters over the last several weeks (as it has overall), there is no question that it has fallen dramatically from its height. The generation that was swept up by ideas of hope and change no longer finds those prospects quite as enticing- or, perhaps, not as realistic.
But Still Likely to Vote for Him
It is worth noting, though, that while President Obama’s approval rating has declined among young voters, other politicians have performed even worse. Republicans in Congress garner only 24% approval among millennials, and the most likely Republican nominee- Mitt Romney- is regularly beaten by President Obama in head-to-head hypothetical matchups (at least among young voters). In December, the IOP’s polling had Obama ahead with 37% support to Romney’s 26% with the rest unsure. Pew’s earlier- but slightly more conclusive- results pegged Obama at 61% to Romney’s 37%, when young voters were forced to choose one candidate or the other.
Beyond personal feelings toward the President and the Republican nominee, the majority of of young voters are simply more Democratic-leaning on policy. According to the Pew Research Center, 45% favor the Democrats’ approach on jobs, vs. 40% for the Republicans. Only 27% of millennials favor ObamaCare repeal, while 59% support gay marriage. Perhaps most importantly, millennials overwhelmingly say that Democrats are ‘more concerned about people like me’ (55% to 31% for the Republicans), and that Republicans are more extreme in their positions than Democrats.
Chart from the Harvard Institute of Politics
Young Voters Are…. Divided Among GOP Candidates
Young voters are also largely divided among GOP candidates. While Ron Paul has a loyal, vocal youth following, and a strong presence on college campuses, there is little evidence that he can garner majority support among young voters, or even among young Republicans. He has gained some additional momentum in Iowa, including the endorsement of the Daily Iowan, but only time will tell if he can move well beyond the 21% of young Republican caucus-goers that supported him in 2008. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney, who got 22% support among young Iowa Republicans in 2008, will try to expand his lead. Harvard’s survey indicated that Mitt Romney leads among young Republicans (nationally) who are somewhat likely to vote, with Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich behind. On an anecdotal level, we have also observed rising support for Rick Santorum among young social conservatives, and consistent appreciation for Jon Huntsman on college campuses.
Young Voters Are…. Less Likely to Turn out and Vote
As the Harvard Institute of Politics survey points out, young voter turnout has consistently increased in past President elections- from 40.3% in 2000 to 49% in 2004 to 51.1% in 2008. However, in 2010, young voter turnout dramatically decreased relative to the last midterm election, and it seems likely that we may see another decrease in 2012. An extra complication is the expansion of voter ID laws- in at least seven states, including Tennessee and Wisconsin, school IDs can not usually be used at the polls. This greatly complicates the process of voting for out-of-state students, and could depress student voting levels overall. Even more important, though, is the disenchantment and disengagement felt by many members of the millennial generation- largely due to that decrease in enthusiasm, the Center for the Study of the American Electorate now concludes that it is “virtually certain that there will be a substantial drop-off in the level of youth participation and voting in 2012.”
What About Iowa?
Young voters have played a critical role in the Iowa caucuses over the past decade. Between 2004 and 2008, youth voter caucus turnout tripled. In 2008, 65,000 people aged 17-29 showed up for the caucuses, making up 22% of Democratic attendees and 10% of Republicans. The vast majority of the Democratic youth attendees- 57%- supported Barack Obama. As such, the central question will be whether he can maintain their support when the general election rolls around. Among Republicans, though, the youth vote was more divided, with 40% going to Mike Huckabee, 22% Mitt Romney, and 21% Ron Paul.
Based on our discussions with students throughout Iowa, the perspectives gathered here, and the research we’ve compiled, it seems that the trends identified above overwhelmingly hold in Iowa as well. As focus groups conducted in Iowa by the Harvard Institute of Politics and the Culver Public Policy Center at Simpson College indicated, “the magic and luster felt before the 2008 Iowa caucuses (among young voters) is gone.” Young Iowans are less engaged than four years ago, concerned about our future prospects, discouraged by the job market, disappointed by the performance of the President they helped elect, and unclear about where to go from here.
Ron Paul will likely garner a fair amount of support next week; Mitt Romney may as well. But it as almost certain that there will be no youth surge to rival that of 2008. As we near the caucuses and approach the general election, then, candidates will need to both engage our generation and listen to young voters’ perspectives if they hope to draw millennials out to caucus and to vote.
The Perspectives
Still Supporting the President
By Dane Hudson- Recent graduate of the University of Iowa and past President of UI’s College Democrats
I don’t really care who wins the Republican caucuses anyways. A long road remains to their nomination. That’s when I’ll start caring and working to help re-elect a President who represents our best chance to get our house in order.
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Some Disappointment, but Unclear on the Alternatives
By Caleb Wagner- Native Iowan and former volunteer for Pres. Obama’s 2008 Iowa campaign
Like the rest of the nation, Iowa voters (myself included) are disappointed with the back and forth bickering in Washington. But to place blame for the stagnant economy and worthless Congress entirely on President Obama’s shoulders is senseless.
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Why I’m Not Engaged in the Buzz
By Cathryn Sloane- Senior at The University of Iowa
I have not been actively engaged in the Iowa Caucus buzz over the past few months, partly because, as a hardcore Obama supporter, I have no real interest in the candidates. But putting all of that aside, I am particularly unimpressed with the Republican options this year.
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Why This Caucus Is Crucial to My Generation
By Miles Summa- Junior at Iowa State University and an Iowa Native
I was not able to vote four years ago in the 2008 election so I am very eager to participate this year and witness the process first hand. As a 20-year-old, I believe the major concerns for our country lie with the economy and fixing the corrupt government we have in Washington.
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Our Access to the Candidates and the Process
By Scott Syroka- Student at Johnston High School and a native Iowan
When a friend from another state was gushing about a possibility they had of meeting President Obama and shaking his hand, I immediately thought, “Handshake only?” Being a young Iowan, I am used to having close access to presidential candidates that is afforded to rarely anyone else besides the media.
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Disappointed, With No Clear Favorite
By Alex Kline- Junior at the University of Iowa and a native Iowan
Iowa as a whole is not impressed and I can see why–candidates aren’t campaigning to us. As a born and raised Iowan, I believe the ideals held by the not-so-promising candidates aren’t the same as those held by the people. And candidates have missed a vital demographic in their campaign strategies.
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By Ben Freese- Political Science major at Iowa State University
Candidates that hope to make it past our humble state need to know that we will not be swayed by speeches and mudslinging campaigns run in poor taste. Iowa needs to know our candidates have the integrity and the guts that are required to run the greatest democracy on Earth, something which Ron Paul has shown so far.
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Why the Caucus and Occupy Have a Lot in Common
By Kirsten Jacobsen- Recent Graduate of the University of Iowa and a Native Iowan
As someone who has followed Occupy Des Moines from the beginning, it is heartening to see Iowans take this rare opportunity to put their words into action. In the same way that the caucuses are a chance for Americans to participate in hyper-local, direct democracy, so are the Occupy protests a chance to hold a direct dialogue with the politicians crisscrossing Iowa.
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The Importance of Equal Rights
By Jacob Rosenberg- Recent Graduate of the University of Iowa
When the Iowa Caucuses convene on January 3, many issues will be debated. Yet one topic that I am guessing will not be discussed much or at all is LGBT rights. That’s a shame.
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More Informed, But Not Inspired
By Alan Toussaint- Sophomore at the University of Iowa
With the caucuses and primaries coming up for key states like Iowa, Florida and South Carolina, I am most excited for the people who will be voting. On the other hand, I’m concerned about where our country is going to go if one of these elected officials achieves the highest office.
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By Julia Manning- A Native Iowan and a sophomore at the University of Missouri
I feel the same flame of enthusiasm seen in 2008 has yet to ignite Iowans, and Americans, during this current election cycle. Education. Immigration. Economy. Jobs. Health care. Abortion. The lack of overwhelmed enthusiasm is due to the fact that, deep-down, Americans don’t feel confident that any candidate can manage these issues in a truly adequate way.
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Mother Nature Doesn’t Know the Difference
By Kelsey Zlevor- Sophomore at the University of Iowa
Ultimately, this is the most frustrating subject for me regarding the political process, and is often overlooked: environmental concerns have fallen victim to the curse of being thrown into the abyss of platform goals that are associated with Democratic leanings.
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Why I Didn’t Vote in 08, but Will in 2012
By Kate Krug- Recent graduate of Drake University
Okay, I admit it: I was able to vote and didn’t in the 2008 election. I’m a horrible US citizen. Prior to 2008, caucuses (for me) generally equated to annoying phone calls and cheesy television campaigns. Here’s why I’m starting to change my mind a little bit.
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