Romney Wins Florida Primary, Plus Young Voters
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The final data, courtesy of our friends at CIRCLE: 4% of eligible young Floridians participated in the primary last night, and voted strongly for Mitt Romney (41%). In fact, Mitt Romney won every age group, and while his performance among the under-30 crowd was seemingly very strong, it was actually his weakest demographic. That’s a sign of how much he dominated the overall vote, with 46% in his favor compared to 32% for Newt Gingrich.
And among young voters, Ron Paul came in second, with 25% support. It is worth noting, as many have pointed out in the comments, that Paul did not campaign in Florida. Newt Gingrich garnered 21% support among the young, and Rick Santorum gained 13% support.
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UPDATE 8:37 PM EST: Early data indicates that Mitt Romney won a plurality of young voters- along with every other age demographic. Ron Paul came in second among the under-30 crowd.
UPDATE 8:02 PM EST: NBC News, CNN, and Fox have all projected Mitt Romney as the winner of the Florida primary, with Newt Gingrich a ‘distant second,’ according to NBC News. With about 50% of precincts reporting, Romney is leading Gingrich 47% to 31%.
While it’s unofficial, CNN’s exit poll has pegged 18-29 year olds as making up roughly 5% of the overall voting population. We’ll be updating this with official youth voter turnout as soon as the data becomes available.
Chime in below: What do you think about tonight’s results, and where we go from here?
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5:01 PM EST: Tonight, the Republican nomination process continues with a stop in the Sunshine State. Mitt Romney is the heavy favorite in the Florida primary, with Newt Gingrich lagging 10-12 points behind in recent polls. Indeed, since Newt’s strong win in South Carolina, Romney has surged remarkably, anchored by solid performances in the two televised debates. It’s almost certain that various news outlets will call the race for Romney right when the polls close, and the process will move onwards with Mitt Romney as the unquestioned favorite to be the Republican nominee.
Worth watching, though, is the youth vote in a state more frequently associated with the elderly. That’s because Florida could be the first voting state in which Ron Paul doesn’t capture a plurality of the under-30 crowd (he pulled off strong winning margins in Iowa and New Hampshire, and a slightly smaller edge in South Carolina). In 2008, young Florida Republicans went largely for John McCain (30%), Mitt Romney (23%), and Rudy Guiliani (19%), according to data collected by CIRCLE. Ron Paul gained only 5% of that support.
Youth turnout will likely not play a major role tonight- it’s expected to be relatively low compared to the 13% youth showing of 2008. But in the overall scheme of the Republican nomination, it will still be an interesting contest to watch. One of the most penetrating questions around Ron Paul’s support is whether his young fans will stick with the GOP nominee in 2008 (assuming it is NOT Paul), shift to Obama, or stay home altogether. If Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich can perform strongly among Florida’s young Republicans, it may indicate that young conservatives and independents can coalesce around one of the leading contenders. That certainly won’t answer the question of Ron Paul’s support for now, but it could make it a less important variable in the broader scheme of the 2012 election.
What do you expect to see tonight in Florida, and what would those results indicate for the race as a whole? Join the conversation at NGJ as the polls begin to close and we start tracking results.
